This study examines how the absence and subsequent return of spectators affected home advantage in Germany’s first soccer league (Bundesliga) during and following the COVID-19 pandemic. Using the match-level data from five seasons (2017/18- 2021/22; N = 1,530), the analysis exploits pandemic-related spectator bans and capacity restrictions as a natural experiment to isolate crowd effects from other determinants of home advantage. Matches are classified into seven distinct phases covering the pre-pandemic period, two spectator-free periods (“ghost games”), and multiple stages of gradual spectator return with varying attendance levels. The results confirm that home advantage in the Bundesliga disappeared during the first ghost game period of the 2019/20 season. During the second, longer spectator-free period in 2020/21, home advantage initially declined but gradually recovered, suggesting players’ adaptation to empty sta-diums. Following the return of spectators in the 2021/22 season, evidence for an above-average home advantage is limited. A statistically significant increase in home win probability is observed only in the final phase with higher attendance levels, and this effect diminished over time despite rising spectator numbers. Overall, the impact of spectator return is weaker and less persistent than the effect of sudden spectator absence. These findings suggest that the negative shock of empty stadiums had a stronger effect on competitive outcomes than the positive shock associated with the gradual return of fans. The results are consistent with adaptation processes and reference-dependent behavior, implying that home advantage responds asymmetrically to losses and gains in crowd support. The study contributes to the literature by providing the first comprehensive evidence on the post-pandemic return of spectators in the Bundesliga and by high-lighting the dynamic and temporary nature of crowd effects on match outcomes.

Home Advantage, Ghost Games, Soccer, Bundesliga, Crowd Support, Pandemic